The Scenario Analysis of Taiwan Social-economic Development in Response to the Future Climate Change


Author:Kimmie Wang and Yen-Lan Liu




The consequence of climate change impact depends not only on the magnitude of impact itself but also on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the human social-economic and the natural ecological system. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation policy planning would help a specific community or a nation to mitigate the harmful impact and to maintain a sustainable development under the uncertain future climate change. Optimal climate change adaptation and mitigation policy needs to integrate climate change impact with the social-economic adaptive capacity to assess the final social vulnerability to the climate change. However, no matter how to derive the optimal adaptation and mitigation policy a baseline scenario setting for the future uncertainty and risk is a necessity. Thus, scenario analysis is an important approach to tackle the difficult decision study in response to the dynamic and uncertain future climate change. Under the high level of uncertainty and risk involved in climate change different climate and social-economic scenario settings will have quite different differentiated impact results. In order to provide a common ground for climate change studies in the world IPCC designed four basic reference scenario regimes for the future world development in the 21st Century. The main axis of the four set scenarios entails the dual-dimension contrast concept of economic vs. environmental orientation and globalism vs. regionalism development. The driving force of the scenarios consists of higher dimensional factors such as population, economy, technology, energy and land use etc. The storyline of each scenario is represented by the development of the driving forces. In 2001 IPCC published the Special Report on Emission Scenarios is the scenario analysis of our human social-economic development in response to the future climate change which is adopted by most climate studies in the world. To aid the decision making in response to climate change, it is about time for us to consider how to design and provide the basic scenarios for our country’s future developmental vision at the current stage when our government and civil society already started planning and implementing climate change policies and strategies. The purpose of the book is to analyze and describe objectively the possible basic scenarios for Taiwan social-economic development under the framework of IPCC climate change scenario settings. The analysis is carried out by bottom-up simulation on the possible future social-economic development and estimation of green house gases emissions in Taiwan. We adopted large amount of domestic data in the study and the results are revised through expertise head-on discussions. It is our hope that the results can help the future relevant studies on the planning of climate change policy in Taiwan. Key words:IPCC、scenario、storyline、climate change、bottom-up simulation

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