TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Less than 15% of TSMC’s advanced-node manufacturing capacity is expected to be based in the US by 2029, according to Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明), president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research.
Lien made the remarks Wednesday after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a CNBC interview that Washington aims to move 40% of Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain to the US during President Donald Trump’s term.
The comments drew attention in Taiwan, which leads the world in chip production. TSMC produces the majority of the world’s most advanced semiconductors.
Lien said building a semiconductor supply chain is a long-term endeavor measured in decades rather than years, making large-scale relocation unrealistic in the near term. Even under an accelerated timeline, he said, TSMC’s advanced-node production in the US would likely remain below 15% of its total capacity, according to UDN Money.
He also criticized Lutnick for potentially overstating TSMC’s investment figures in media interviews, noting similar claims have been made regarding South Korea and Japan. Lien added that former President Joe Biden’s benchmark for domestic advanced semiconductor manufacturing is about 30%, suggesting Lutnick’s 40% target may be politically motivated.
TSMC’s first fab in Arizona is already producing 4-nm chips at a monthly capacity of 20,000 wafers. The company’s recent earnings call indicated its second Arizona fab, expected to produce 3-nm chips at a monthly capacity of 30,000 wafers, will begin operations next year.
A third fab, planned to produce 2-nm chips at the same monthly capacity, is not expected to start production before 2028. By comparison, TSMC’s total projected global 3-nm and 2-nm capacities this year are around 200,000 and 140,000 wafers per month, respectively.
Lien said the most likely outcome during Trump’s term would be the completion of three fabs. He emphasized that advanced-node production in the US is not limited to TSMC, with Samsung, Micron, and Intel also expanding capabilities.
As part of a trade deal finalized on Jan. 15, the Taiwanese government pledged a total of NT$15.8 trillion (US$500 billion) to support semiconductor and technology investment in the US. This includes NT$7.9 trillion in direct investment by Taiwanese companies and a separate NT$7.9 trillion government credit guarantee to back those investments, according to the BBC.
Lutnick described the agreement as a NT$15.8 trillion down payment aimed at bringing semiconductor manufacturing to the US. Lien said Taiwan’s private investment commitment is NT$7.9 trillion, backed by a separate NT$7.9 trillion government guarantee intended to support and accelerate that investment.
The deal exempts equipment and machinery used by Taiwanese firms in US fabs from tariffs, which Lien said will help reduce production costs and uncertainty for Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. He added that the agreement is likely to benefit Taiwan’s sector, citing South Korea’s cautious response as an indicator of regional competitiveness.
Charlotte Lee
Taiwan News, Staff Writer
Jan. 22, 2026