As the Trump administration advances its “21st Century Monroe Doctrine,” the global geopolitical and economic structure continues to undergo reorganization in 2026. The U.S.-China strategic competition, American economic security policies, and adjustments to the global security architecture will serve as critical variables affecting risk in the Indo-Pacific region and worldwide. However, Chun Lee, an Associate Research Fellow of the WTO & RTA Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), noted that following the trials of the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the previous round of U.S.-China friction, the adaptive capacity of both the global economy and Taiwan’s economy has demonstrably strengthened, with overall impacts remaining manageable.
Reviewing 2025, major economies generally performed better than anticipated. The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics projects Taiwan’s economic growth rate will reach 7.37%, marking a fifteen-year high. The United States, China, ASEAN, and the European Union also maintained moderate growth. Meanwhile, global trade volumes expanded in parallel, demonstrating that despite confronting substantial uncertainty, economies continue to exhibit resilience.
Associate Research Fellow Chun Lee analyzed that the American “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) approach has established 3 major areas of consensus. First, U.S.-China economic and technological competition is regarded as central to national security, with the United States continuing to advance strategic technology “de-risking” and reduced dependence on critical resources. Second, the United States will strengthen its own economic security through tariffs, reindustrialization, and strategic positioning in energy and defense industries. Third, the global security framework is shifting toward a configuration where the Americas ensure their own security independently, the Indo-Pacific maintains collective deterrence, and Europe progressively assumes greater responsibility.
For Taiwan, the imperative lies in pragmatically managing risks, accepting the reality of structural U.S.-China bifurcation, consolidating its indispensable position within global supply chains, and maintaining peace through strength. Over the past fifty years, Taiwan has repeatedly transformed crises into opportunities. Confronting the challenges of 2026, Taiwan’s overall preparedness remains relatively advanced.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: January 22, 2026