U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently expressed a goal of relocating 40% of Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain capacity to the United States during President Trump’s term, which garnered significant public attention. Hsien-Ming Lien, President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), responded that developing semiconductor supply chains is a complex process that operates on decade-long timelines, making it unrealistic to expect substantial relocation in the short term. He indicated that external observers should not over-interpret such statements.
Under the Taiwan-U.S. agreement, Taiwan has committed to US$250 billion in private sector investment in the United States, along with US$250 billion in government credit guarantees. These two components are fundamentally different in nature and should not be added together. The government’s role is to facilitate and accelerate private investment, with the actual investment commitment to the United States standing at US$250 billion. This content has been clearly documented in official U.S. statements.
Reducing Uncertainty: TSMC’s Advanced Manufacturing Presence in U.S. Remains Limited
President Hsien-Ming Lien noted that the United States’ push for domestic semiconductor manufacturing is not directed solely at TSMC, as Samsung, Micron, and Intel are also actively scaling up their advanced process nodes. The recent mass production of Intel’s 2nm process and the groundbreaking of Micron’s new facility demonstrate that U.S. semiconductor policy is diversifying its sources. If other industry players continue to make steady progress, the pressure currently concentrated on TSMC is expected to diminish.
Regarding TSMC’s progress in the U.S., according to the company’s recent investor presentations, the first Arizona fab has already commenced mass production of 4nm chips. The second fab is scheduled to begin production in 2027, followed by the third fab as early as 2028. Completing these three facilities within President Trump’s current term would represent the upper limit of feasibility; consequently, it is estimated that no more than 15% of TSMC’s advanced process capacity will be produced on U.S. soil.
President Hsien-Ming Lien emphasized that beyond the tariff arrangements for semiconductors, the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement also includes duty-free treatment for machinery and equipment. This helps reduce industrial uncertainty and supports the global strategic positioning of enterprises. Judging by the highly anxious reactions from other countries, this agreement is clearly of significant benefit to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: January 21, 2026