The U.S.-China trade truce, initially set to expire on November 10, 2026, has been extended by two months to January 2027. According to Kristy Hsu, Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), temporary and conditional truces have become the prevailing approach for managing bilateral trade tensions. The truce may continue to be extended in two- or three-month increments. Nevertheless, the United States retains the option to implement new trade measures against China for other reasons. The most recent tariff-reduction list indicates that China remains a key, and in some cases the largest, U.S. supplier of non-sensitive goods such as toys, small household appliances, and seasonal products. Due to ongoing inflationary pressures in the United States and related factors, it is unlikely that Washington will introduce additional measures targeting these categories.
Irreplaceable Chinese Consumer Goods Leave U.S. Little Room for Tariff Hikes on Toys and Household Goods
Hsu observed that the primary outcome of the recent U.S.-China meeting was the mutual proposal to reduce tariffs on approximately US$30 billion in goods, in addition to China’s ongoing commitment to purchase U.S. agricultural and energy products. However, this figure is modest relative to the total volume of U.S.-China trade, suggesting that the direct impact on Taiwan’s exports to the United States will likely remain limited.
The tariff-reduction lists show that the United States is seeking preferential market access for a broader range of products. China’s list contains fewer items but includes toys, small household appliances, and other products that account for substantial U.S. import volumes.
Hsu emphasized the importance of monitoring these products, as China remains a major supplier of many non-sensitive goods. Despite U.S. initiatives to diversify supply chains, China cannot be fully substituted in specific consumer product categories in the near term. The United States continues to experience inflationary pressures and concerns regarding consumer costs. Additional tariffs on these products would likely raise expenses for U.S. importers and consumers, thereby constraining Washington’s capacity to implement broad new measures targeting these goods.
U.S. Retains Section 301, Section 232, and Antidumping Tools as Trade Truce Falls Short of Easing Tensions
Hsu emphasized that this does not mean the Trump administration will refrain from taking other trade measures against China. The latest U.S.-China talks focused primarily on tariffs covering certain products and arrangements for the trade truce. The United States still has many other trade policy tools at its disposal. A trade truce therefore should not be equated with an easing of trade tensions.
Hsu indicated that before the latest U.S.-China summit, the United States had launched investigations into products made with forced labor and manufacturing overcapacity. Measures related to forced-labor products have already been announced, while the overcapacity investigation has been suspended. However, the United States could still release the findings at a later date and impose tariffs on specific countries or products. It can also use Section 232 measures, antidumping duties, and other trade instruments.
With respect to the US$30 billion tariff-reduction arrangement, Hsu observed that China’s Ministry of Commerce stated both parties would reduce tariffs on approximately US$30 billion in goods, which would ultimately be subject to World Trade Organization most-favored-nation (MFN) rates. However, documentation from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) did not reference MFN treatment. As a result, it remains uncertain whether the preferential U.S. tariffs encompass the removal of Section 301 tariffs imposed on Chinese goods since 2018.
Since 2018, the United States has imposed Section 301 tariffs at varying rates on Chinese goods. Some rates range from approximately 7.5% to 30%, while those on certain products are even higher. After President Trump began his second term, the United States also imposed fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods. Bilateral tariffs rose sharply before the two countries entered a temporary tariff truce in May 2025 and extended it several times.
The two parties have now extended the truce through January 10, 2027. Hsu indicated that the pattern of repeated extensions suggests that temporary truces of several months have become the standard approach for addressing U.S.-China tariff disputes. Upon the expiration of the current truce in January 2027, further conditional extensions of two or three months remain possible.
Taiwan’s Rapid Export Growth to the United States May Attract Greater U.S. Scrutiny
Regarding the possibility of loosening restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States, Hsu said the latest talks yielded no concrete results. From the U.S. perspective, Chinese investment could increase domestic capital spending and create jobs. However, such investment may also be subject to local procurement requirements and restrictions on the use of sensitive equipment and technologies. These issues could become a focus of future negotiations.
Hsu stated that the most recent U.S.-China trade arrangements are expected to have a relatively limited direct effect on Taiwan. A more significant concern is the sharp decline in China’s exports to the United States and the bilateral trade surplus, which has nearly been halved in recent years. In contrast, Taiwan and Vietnam have experienced notable increases in exports to and trade surpluses with the United States. Should Taiwan’s exports to the United States continue to expand rapidly, they may draw increased attention and scrutiny from U.S. authorities.
Source: Commercial Times (September 30, 2026). U.S.-China Trade Truces Become an Established Model as CIER Expert Foresees “Conditional Extensions.” Commercial Times. https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20260929701245-430801