CIER said Monday that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose 1.9 points to 57.2 in January, the highest reading since April 2022. A PMI above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction, per CNA.
The institute said the Manufacturing Outlook Index for the next six months jumped to 61, also the highest level in nearly four years, as uncertainty faded following the conclusion of Taiwan-US tariff negotiations.
According to CIER, the manufacturing sector was weighed down by concerns over US tariffs last year, which dampened producers’ confidence. In January, however, Taiwan and the US finalized their tariff talks, reducing tariff rates to 15%. Taiwan also secured most-favored tariff treatment for semiconductors and semiconductor-related products.
CIER President Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) said the stronger outlook was “somewhat unexpected,” noting that uncertainty for manufacturers is gradually being eliminated.
Academia Sinica Institute of Economics researcher Chien Chin-han (簡錦漢) said that, beyond reduced tariff uncertainty, continued large-scale investment by companies in the AI sector is supporting Taiwan’s economic performance. He described this year as shaping up to be “a very hot year” for the economy.
CIER Associate Research Fellow Chen Hsin-hui (陳馨蕙) said three main factors drove the January PMI increase: domestic demand industries preparing for the Lunar New Year peak season; strong AI demand combined with easing tariff burdens that improved performance in related manufacturing sectors; and repeated record highs in the Taiwan stock market, which boosted the financial and insurance sectors.
Chen said Taiwan’s favorable tariff treatment for semiconductors and related products is expected to benefit the broader technology and science sectors, including IC design, advanced engineering, and professional technical consulting. Construction and real estate firms involved in semiconductor equipment plants, automation, and cleanroom projects also reported relatively optimistic outlooks.
He added that Taiwan’s AI supply chain has entered a “dual-engine” phase, driven by both customized chips and Nvidia’s GPUs, pointing to sustained AI demand and a relatively positive outlook for the economy.
Feb. 3, 2026
Sean Scanlan
Taiwan News, Staff Writer