TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan’s economy will grow 4.14% in 2026, driven by strong artificial intelligence demand, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (中華經濟研究院) forecast on Monday (Jan. 19). Prof. Lien Hsien-Ming (連賢明), the institution’s president, noted the projection does not yet factor in recent Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations, which are expected to further bolster growth. The forecast follows the conclusion of bilateral trade talks on Jan. 16 that yielded favorable terms for Taiwan.
The institution projects 7.43% economic growth for 2025, despite uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies that disrupted trade patterns throughout the year. Preemptive stockpiling by businesses and AI-driven technology investments propelled the stronger-than-expected performance. For 2026, growth will reach 5.28% in the first half before moderating to 3.10% in the second half, with AI hardware demand continuing to fuel trade expansion across the region.
The institution projects a 1.64% rise in the Consumer Price Index for 2026, signaling price stability amid steady international commodity prices and declining oil costs. The New Taiwan dollar is expected to average NT$30.33 per US$1 (compared to the current rate of approximately NT$31.5 per US$1). Three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and Taiwan’s expanding trade surplus with the U.S. will strengthen the local currency.
The Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations concluded on Jan. 16 with positive implications across multiple sectors, Prof. Lien emphasized. Traditional industries will gain a fairer competitive edge as tariffs drop from 20% to 15%. The resolution of semiconductor tariff issues under the Section 232 investigation, a U.S. trade measure targeting national security concerns, will positively impact technology investments and stock prices.
A mutual investment agreement emerged as a key highlight of the negotiations, with the U.S. committing to collaborate with Taiwan’s strategic industries. The collaboration promises benefits for Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing sector, technology startups, and emerging industries, according to the institution’s analysis of the trade deal’s implications. ◼ (At time of reporting, US$1 equals approximately NT$31.5)
Reporter TVBS News Staff
Release time：2026/01/19 04:14
Last update time：2026/01/19 14:49