Meng-Chun Liu, Director of the China Economic Research Institute at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), stated on December 23 that China’s “15th Five-Year Plan” is facing three major internal challenges: insufficient consumer momentum, continued bottoming out of the real estate sector, and overcapacity coupled with deflationary pressures. While risks to Taiwan are rising in this highly uncertain environment, it also represents a critical window to readjust strategic positioning and enhance irreplaceability.
Director Meng-Chun Liu pointed out at the “Impact and Outlook of Trump’s New Administration on Mainland China’s Economy and Cross-Strait Economic Relations” symposium that the core focus of the “15th Five-Year Plan” is to develop “new quality productive forces,” with four key focuses: technological autonomy, digital intelligence, green low-carbon initiatives, and institutional innovation. The goal is to break through critical technological bottlenecks and support “specialized, refined, differential, and innovative” small and medium-sized enterprises and innovative companies to drive industrial upgrading.
Chinese-style modernization has progressed from the strategic design phase to the governance deepening phase, with policy priorities shifting toward strengthening economic resilience and governance capacity through technological innovation, green transformation, and institutional reform. The long-term strategic confrontation between the U.S. and China, alongside efforts to de-risk supply chains and contain high-tech competition, continues to create significant pressure on both sides. Amid this backdrop, Beijing is actively developing carbon markets and digital trade regulations, aiming to enhance its influence and establish a stronger institutional voice in these critical areas.
In light of the current political climate, Director Meng-Chun Liu emphasized that Taiwan must adopt “resilience” as a core value. By deepening its strengths in stable supply, rapid adjustments, and trustworthy governance, Taiwan can enhance its strategic position. To achieve this, he suggests focusing on three key areas: institutional rules, critical technologies, and international cooperation, which will make Taiwan’s position more difficult to replicate.
Director Meng-Chun Liu also cautioned that if China successfully establishes a long-term domestic demand mechanism, regional market attractiveness will increase, potentially affecting Taiwan’s export-oriented model. Additionally, the growth of the “red supply chain” may also constrict Taiwan’s mid-tier manufacturing sector, necessitating prompt response measures.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: December 24, 2025