Concerns have recently arisen regarding Taiwan-U.S. tariff reciprocity negotiations, particularly speculation that NVIDIA might have to pay a 25% profit-sharing fee to the U.S., which Taiwan could potentially shoulder. Hsien-Ming Lien, President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), addressed these issues at the “Macroeconomic Modeling Workshop, MMW 2025” held by the Institute of Economics at Academia Sinica on December 10. He emphasized that the issues surrounding Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations should not be exaggerated. Tariffs can be passed on through market mechanisms, and the real challenge lies in other coercive measures the U.S. might adopt, such as antitrust investigations or restrictions on non-U.S. companies’ use of critical technologies.
President Hsien-Ming Lien noted that the U.S., as the world’s largest consumer market, is currently focused on requiring supply chains to decrease geopolitical risks. This includes encouraging Taiwan to move some production capacity to the United States. He emphasized that if Taiwan completely refuses, the U.S. still holds coercive measures beyond tariffs, such as antitrust investigations and restrictions on the use of critical U.S. technologies (such as EDA and EUV), which would have a far greater impact than tariffs. Therefore, there is no need to confront the U.S. head-on.
Trump’s Dual-Track Policy Aims to Prevent China from Completely Decoupling from the U.S. Supply Chain
Regarding the policy requiring NVIDIA’s H200 chip exports to China to pay a 25% tax, President Hsien-Ming Lien believes the key issue stems from U.S. law prohibiting the levy of “export taxes.” If the H200 is re-exported from the U.S. to China, the U.S. cannot collect fees at the export stage, so it can only process related deductions through the “import process” when chips are shipped from Taiwan to the U.S. This is a matter of U.S. regulatory operations and has nothing to do with Taiwanese companies’ financial burden.
The strategic thinking behind Trump’s policy aims to limit China’s technological advancement while also preventing a complete decoupling of China from the U.S. supply chain, making this balance inherently difficult to manage.
Shin-Horng Chen, Vice President of the CIER, emphasized that U.S. authorities continue to face a significant technical challenge in implementing the H200 rule: identifying which H200 chips exported from Taiwan might be re-exported to China. The diverse applications and demands for these chips complicate advanced classification efforts. In light of external speculation about Taiwan-U.S. investment amounts and profit-sharing arrangements, the public must consider these issues from the perspectives of supply chain security, international regulatory constraints, and Taiwan’s long-term competitiveness.
President Hsien-Ming Lien emphasized that Taiwan should position itself as a responsible supply chain partner, prioritizing international security, thereby maximizing benefits through a steady, pragmatic approach.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: December 11, 2025