US President-elect Donald Trump will soon take office on Jan. 20, just before Taiwan’s stock market closes for the Lunar New Year holidays. That leaves only a few days for observers to watch the initial effects of Trump 2.0 on Taiwan’s economy. Although economic prospects remain optimistic at the time being, with projected annual GDP growth at 3.22%, experts say it all depends on how exactly Trump plans to implement his proposed tariffs.
Dan Silver
AmCham Taiwan chair
Our members expressed significant amounts of confidence in the future economic growth in Taiwan, as well as their own revenue and company prospects in Taiwan for the coming 12 months and the coming three years.
The chair of Amcham Taiwan, Dan Silver says US investors in Taiwan remain optimistic of economic prospects here, despite rising cross-strait tensions. On the contrary, geopolitical shifts have prompted 17% of its members to expand operations in Taiwan.
Dan Silver
AmCham Taiwan chair
We do know that in a bilateral trade agreement, tariffs would be enshrined at a lower level in a permanent way. So I think that that’s a kind of proxy for seeing the desire for continued, unimpeded trade between the United States and Taiwan on all levels.
With Donald Trump soon to become US president, his looming tariffs may well affect Taiwan-US bilateral trade. Over 70% of AmCham members agree that a double taxation agreement between the US and Taiwan would be necessary in offsetting the increased costs.
Wang Chien-chuan
Chung-hwa Institution for Economic Research
If Trump were to apply blanket tariffs, then of course that will have a greater impact on Taiwan. But it seems like he’s starting with a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods, meaning he’s imposing tariffs in a way that gives him leverage in negotiations.
Lien Hsien-ming
Chung-hwa Institution for Economic Research
It’s hard to say whether he’ll impose the target rates at once or incrementally. Internationally speaking, IC products are almost free of taxation. We’re watching whether Trump changes this or not.
Researchers at the Chung-hwa Institution for Economic Research put Taiwan’s projected GDP growth in 2025 at 3.22% and inflation at 1.91%, which is rather optimistic. But seeing that most of the growth is driven by the tech sector, Taiwan may have to diversify its industries to de-risk under a new global order.
