Close attention is being paid to the future trajectory of U.S. policy toward Taiwan following the recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Regarding assessments by U.S. think tanks on the Trump-Xi interactions and the situation in Taiwan, Hsien-Ming Lien, President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), stated that most U.S. think tanks believe it is highly unlikely Trump would genuinely abandon Taiwan, despite his aggressive style. This is because Taiwan holds a crucial strategic position within the framework of U.S.-China competition.
U.S. Think Tanks: Taiwan Remains an Important Pivot in the First Island Chain
Lien pointed out that U.S. think tanks primarily analyze Taiwan’s role from three perspectives: security, politics, and economics. On the security front, the greatest external concern is whether Trump might use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China, but most think tanks consider this improbable. The reasons are threefold: First, Trump does not want to be perceived as “the U.S. President who abandoned Taiwan.” Second, the U.S. national security apparatus continues to emphasize the strategic importance of the First Island Chain. Third, U.S.-China competition has become a protracted reality, with Taiwan serving as a vital fulcrum affecting the regional balance of power.
Nevertheless, think tanks also caution that the U.S. could still use arms sales to Taiwan as a negotiating tool. Lien analyzed that Trump is more likely to leverage the delayed announcement of arms sales schedules to create maneuvering room, rather than canceling arms sales entirely. Because Beijing also understands this possibility, the trade and economic cooperation agreements and monetary figures announced following the Trump-Xi summit were more conservative than the market initially anticipated, indicating that both sides are still testing each other’s bottom lines.
Trump Prioritizes Practical Benefits; Taiwan May See Limited “Symbolic Treatment”
Politically, U.S. think tanks generally believe that the interactions between Trump and Xi will not result in any major political declarations or breakthrough consensus in the short term; both sides will continue to maintain their existing stated positions. However, Lien believes that because Trump has consistently favored major power politics and practical interests over a strong emphasis on value-based alliances, Taiwan may not receive the same level of diplomatic symbolism and political courtesies as it has in the past.
Semiconductors and Energy Resilience Become Focal Points for Washington
Economically, U.S. think tanks universally acknowledge the importance of Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain to the U.S. tech industry and AI development, paying particular attention to supply chain resilience and TSMC’s global footprint. Concurrently, Taiwan’s energy security has also become a topic of discussion, specifically regarding how Taiwan would maintain a stable energy supply if regional conflicts escalate and maritime transport is blockaded.
Furthermore, Taiwan’s rapidly expanding trade surplus with the United States in recent years has drawn Washington’s concern. Lien noted that U.S. think tanks warn if Trump fixates on Taiwan’s growing trade surplus, he may demand that Taiwan boost its investments and job creation efforts in the U.S. For Trump, the focus is much more on the volume of investment, jobs, and electoral benefits Taiwan can generate for the U.S., rather than the intricacies of supply chain divisions that underlie trade statistics.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: May 27, 2026