2026 Economic Outlook Forum – Insights into Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and AI Momentum: Seizing Opportunities for Economic Growth

Event Purpose:

Global economic growth in 2025 resembled a roller coaster ride, fluctuating with President Trump’s dominant influence as circumstances oscillated with tariffs and the Big Beautiful Bill. Major institutions’ year-end growth estimates were revised upward from their early-year forecasts. Among these developments, the AI industry proved to be the strongest ally. With tremendous advances in artificial intelligence technology and applications, not only did the stock prices and market capitalizations of the Magnificent 7 (MAG7) repeatedly reach new highs, but the Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index also easily surpassed 28,000 points. In particular, Taiwan’s economic growth outperformed its peers despite rising uncertainty from U.S. reciprocal tariff policies and the strong appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which created pressure on industries and corporate operations. The economic growth rate for the first three quarters reached 7.18%. While relative growth accelerated quarter by quarter, inflation (CPI year-over-year growth rate) showed a decelerating trend, with an average growth rate of 1.69% from January to November. Furthermore, GDP per capita surpassed both Japan and South Korea, reaching US$38,748 per person, approaching US$40,000.

Looking ahead to the macroeconomic landscape globally and in Taiwan in 2026, we see that the United States will hold midterm elections in November. These elections can be seen as both a performance review of President Trump’s second term and an indicator for the 2028 presidential election. It is expected that President Trump will inevitably introduce more policy measures to gain voter support and approval, which will bring new stimulus and challenges to the U.S. and global economy. Can global economic growth break free from the trend of year-over-year deceleration? Will geopolitical tensions find opportunities for peace? Will the U.S. interest rate-cutting cycle continue? Or will it pause due to inflation conditions? These factors are crucial to global economic growth and regional/national growth trends.

The development of AI, which serves as the core engine for long-term productivity leaps, plays an even more critical role in global and Taiwan’s economic growth. From the semiconductor era to the AI era, Taiwan has become a pivotal cornerstone of the global smart economy. Under the rapid advancement of AI, what issues or challenges deserve attention and discussion?

What will be the trends in the global economy in 2026? What are the issues and challenges for Taiwan’s economic growth? To gather diverse perspectives, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) will hold the “2026 Economic Outlook Forum” on the morning of Monday, January 19, 2026. The forum will invite representatives from industry, government, academia, and research institutions with the most forward-looking vision and representativeness to share their observations and experiences.

The forum will be conducted in two sessions. [Session I] focuses on Important Economic Issues and Policy Outlook, featuring “Topic 1: Trends in Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and Stablecoins” and “Topic 2: AI Industry Development Trends and Their Impact on Taiwan’s Economy.” The former focuses on the policy interest rate directions of major economies, major currency exchange rate fluctuations, and the rapid institutionalization of stablecoins, analyzing the mechanisms of interaction among these three factors and their effects on financial markets, capital flows, and corporate decision-making. The latter examines the latest development trends and evolution of the global AI industry, focusing on its impact on Taiwan’s semiconductor, manufacturing, and service industries, as well as overall economic growth momentum. It analyzes industrial opportunities, structural adjustments, and policy response directions to help participants understand the key challenges and strategic priorities for Taiwan’s economy amid the AI wave. [Session II: 2026 Taiwan Economic Forecast] will be presented by Director Su-Ling Peng of the Center for Economic Forecasting at the CIER. The presentation will analyze global and domestic macroeconomic conditions, price trends, and financial market landscapes, and provide forecasts for Taiwan’s economic growth in 2026. Representatives from industry, government, academia, and research institutions will be invited to serve as panelists to jointly discuss and analyze the opportunities and challenges facing Taiwan’s economy in 2026.

Organizer: Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER)
Co-organizers:2025 Chung-Hua Financial and Economic Forum Members, Chung-Hua Association for Financial and Economic Strategies
Event Date: January 19, 2026, (Mon.) 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM
Event Venue: Chiang Shuo-Chieh International Conference Hall, CIER (B1, No. 75, Changxing Street, Da’an District, Taipei City) [Traffic Information]
Participants: People from industry, government, academia, research institutions, and other fields
Contact Method: (02)2735-6006 Ext. 104 Ms. Sung, 103 Ms. Chuang, The Center for Financial and Economic Strategies, CIER
Registration Method: Online registration (http://seminar.cier.edu.tw/Regfrm.asp?id=20260119)

* Parking is limited at our institution, and we cannot provide parking for attendees. We apologize for any inconvenience and appreciate your understanding.

Event Agenda: