The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan, recently released preliminary estimates indicating that Taiwan’s Q3 economic growth rate reached 7.64%, exceeding expectations and demonstrating robust export momentum. Su-Ling Peng, Director of the Center for Economic Forecasting at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), noted that the upward revision was “not surprising,” attributing it primarily to the simultaneous strengthening of both imports and exports. The overall data remains within reasonable parameters.
If Q4’s economic growth maintains a rate of 2.7% or higher, the full-year GDP is projected to reach 5.8%. Should growth reach 3%, the annual growth rate could potentially exceed 6%. Foreign financial institutions have likewise revised their forecasts for Taiwan upward. Nomura Holdings and ANZ Bank are estimating 6.2% and JPMorgan Chase is projecting 6.1%, reflecting external confidence in Taiwan’s economic performance.
However, Director Su-Ling Peng cautioned that Q4 remains subject to variables, including a relatively high base period from the previous year, African swine fever outbreaks, and the effectiveness of universal cash distribution policies. If the epidemic drives up meat prices, domestic demand may be constrained. Conversely, if government policies successfully combine promotional activities with targeted marketing strategies, this could stimulate consumption and reinforce the momentum of economic growth.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: November 3, 2025