This study represents the results of analytical research into the development of railways in Mainland China from 1949-1982.
At the end of 1949 there were about 22,000 kilometers of railway lines in Mainland China. In the ensuing thirty plus years this figure was extended and reached 52,320 kilometers in 1982. In 1982, 950 million passengers rode the railways, an increase of eight times over that of 1949. Passenger turnover traffic was 157.2 billion passenger-kms, a more than ten-fold increase over the 1949 figure. During the same period, freight transport and freight turnover were also growing substantially, by 1.11 billion tons and 610 billion tons-kms, respectively, or increases of 10 and 30 times. Among all modern means of transport, rail transport accounted for approximately 71 percent of the total freight turnover traffic and 59 percent of the total passenger traffic in 1982.
In 1983, the railway system in Mainland China could claim a total of 2.7 million workers and 5,039 stations. Yet, for a long time, the railways had been unable to satisfy the demand for freight and passenger services. Due to constant coal shipments from Shanxi Province, the continuously increasing numbers of rail passengers, and the sharp ascent of foreign trade, many bottleneck sections emerged slowing down train schedules along these routes. The Mainland Chinese government itself admitted that “transportation is one of the key factors that is holding back our economic development…”
It is thus clear that in Mainland China energy shortages, transportation impediments, and economic development are closely connected. In the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1981-1985), the authorities have stated their intention to strive to “raise the annual total value of industrial and agricultural products by four times, based on the 1980s standard, by the year 2,000.” The plan also declares that “the three strategic sectors that should be emphasized are agriculture, energy-transportation, and education-science. Using them as bases, the overall economic development can be pushed forward.” Although many scholastic studies of the Mainland Chinese economy are. available, they offer little discussion of railway transportation. The present research is a preliminary study. It will provide useful reference for concerned readers.
Conclusions
This study offers a detailed investigation of the development of Chinese railways, the unique multi-variable railway system, the growth of rail transport, and the return on railway investment. The Chinese experience is also compared with that of other countries. Some of the important conclusions of the study are listed below:
(1) The fundamental railway network has already been established, and production of rolling stock basically satisfies domestic demand. However, if the problems of coal shipments and transportation bottlenecks are not solved, economic development will inevitably suffer.
(2) It seems that the many political movements in Mainland China have influenced railway traffic. In regression lines, all exogenous variables, such as steel products, coal, cement, and food, exhibit good correlation to explain rail freight transport. Some coefficients in regression lines, on the other hand, show inconsistencies. More research should be pursued in this area.
(3) The share of the railways in freight transport is inversely related to the rate of economic growth. This is verified by a time series study presented in the paper. Between 1966 and 1976, the share of railways in freight transport dropped by 13 percent, while economic growth was advancing by only 4.percent. According to the Spearman Rho rank correlation test, it is obvious that forward linkage is the appropriate relationship between the railroad industry and other related industries. Recently, more funding has been allocated for the railroad system in eastern China. This policy is in compliance with the emphasis on economic efficiency, but will surely delay the overdue development schemes for western China.
(4) The government in Mainland China is very much concerned with economic efficiency now. Combined transportation is being promoted through the encouragement of increased foreign investment in coal mines and ports. Since the railway industry is only one microeconomic sector, it should be evaluated carefully because there are many other variables that could affect the efficiency of the system.
The premier of Mainland China, Zhao Ziyang, has said that ” in the near future, there will be no easy solution for the problems of overloads in the transportation system and the energy shortage…” Whether Mainland China will be able to solve its bottleneck problem and whether its railways can be made efficient enough so that its economic goals may be reached remains to be seen as changes are enacted over time.