The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) released its December 2025 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on January 2, 2026, showing a seasonally adjusted increase of 3.9 percentage points to 55.3%. This marks the third consecutive month of expansion and represents the fastest expansion rate since June 2024. Hsien-Ming Lien, President of the CIER, noted that momentum within the AI supply chain continues to spread, driving renewed confidence in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing future outlook index has simultaneously turned to expansion, marking the first occurrence since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
President Hsien-Ming Lien explained that the December PMI rise was primarily driven by significantly faster expansion in both new orders and production indices, with the new orders index achieving its fastest expansion since July 2024. The manufacturing six-month outlook index recovered to 51.0%, indicating that manufacturers have become increasingly optimistic about near-term business conditions.
From an industry perspective, the electronics and optics sector, which holds the highest weight among the six major sectors, is significantly benefiting from AI business opportunities. This sector serves as the primary driver of overall PMI strength. Next-generation AI computing products have entered mass production and shipping phases. Meanwhile, demand from cloud service providers for customized AI chips has climbed, stimulating demand for advanced wafers, substrates, packaging, power supplies, and memory components. Meanwhile, tight supply conditions for conventional memory have prompted customers to accelerate shipments, causing the unfilled orders index to shift from contraction to expansion, with the future outlook index rising further to 58.8%.
Shin-Hui Chen, an Associate Research Fellow at the Third Research (Taiwanese Economy) Division of the CIER, pointed out that the AI market has recently evolved from a single supply chain into a dual-engine structure. Beyond the NVIDIA GPU ecosystem, demand for customized chips is growing in parallel, creating diversified support for Taiwan’s supply chain. Taiwan remains a critical global AI supplier, and AI will continue to serve as an important driver supporting PMI performance.
Regarding the non-manufacturing sector, the December Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) declined slightly to 54.6%, yet has maintained expansion for ten consecutive months, with business conditions remaining relatively stable.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: January 5, 2026