As soybean harvest season approaches in the United States amid the U.S.–China tariff war, a new front over soybeans has emerged.
China, historically the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, purchased US$12.64 billion worth in 2024 — more than half of all U.S. soybean exports. However, purchases have halted since May due to escalating trade tensions. With nowhere to sell their harvest, American farmers — many of whom support U.S. President Donald Trump — are facing mounting losses, creating a political dilemma for the White House.
Soybeans are the lifeblood of U.S. agriculture, ranking first among American agricultural exports in 2024 at US$24.58 billion. China has long been the top market, but as tariffs escalated, it shifted its purchases to South America. By September 2025, U.S. soybean stockpiles reached a 10-year high, prices dropped to 2008 lows, and some 500,000 American farmers came under severe economic pressure.
Associate researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research Lin Ya-ling (林雅鈴) noted that farmers form a core part of Trump’s voter base. He has sought to help them through subsidies, loans, and new soybean processing plants, while also pursuing alternative export markets. Yet efforts to diversify have fallen short: exports to non-Chinese markets are up 10%, while losses from China exceed 50%, leaving a gap too large to fill.
Researcher at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research Wang Kuo-chen (王國臣) offered a different view, saying that China’s use of soybean imports as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations is both deliberate and necessary amid its economic slowdown—reflecting not just unwillingness but also inability to maintain prior import levels.
In any case, China’s long-term strategy to diversify food sources has allowed it to confidently slash U.S. soybean imports. Whether high tariffs can still compel concessions remains uncertain, as Beijing has only hardened its stance in trade talks—casting doubt on a possible Xi–Trump meeting at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
14/10/2025 15:03
Editor： Hanna Bilinski