As the U.S.-China tariff war heats up, China has completely stopped purchasing American soybeans since May, impacting the key farming constituency in the American Midwest. Soybeans have long been a primary U.S. export, with an export value of US$24.58 billion in 2024, over half of which was sold to China. Now, China’s shift to South American suppliers is escalating both agricultural and political pressure in the United States.
China Is Not “Refusing to Buy,” But “Cannot Afford to Buy”
Guo-Chen Wang, Assistant Research Fellow at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), points out that China’s halt of U.S. soybean purchases is not merely a political maneuver but also a reflection of internal economic difficulties. Facing fiscal constraints and shrinking consumption, falling pork prices in China have led to decreased demand for animal feed, naturally causing soybean import volumes to decline. This is no longer just a case of China weaponizing soybean purchases as leverage in tariff negotiations, but rather a result of limitations in both “willingness and ability.”
Strategic Food Sourcing Began Pre-emptively, Trade War Adds New Variables
Assistant Research Fellow Guo-Chen Wang believes that China has been diversifying its food import sources in recent years to reduce its dependence on the U.S., thereby strengthening its position in negotiations. The future struggle over agricultural products is poised to become a new variable in U.S.-China trade talks.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: October 14, 2025