Reporter TVBS News Staff
Release time：2025/07/17 20:00
TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Taiwan’s export-dependent economy faces new uncertainties after the United States revealed its long-anticipated reciprocal tariff framework Thursday (July 17), though the island democracy’s specific duty rate remains conspicuously absent from initial announcements. Lien Hsien-min (連賢明), who heads the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院), Taiwan’s leading government-affiliated economic think tank, projected that Taiwan would ultimately face tariffs between 15% and 20%. He warned that rates climbing beyond this threshold would trigger substantial price increases for American consumers, potentially undermining political support for the policy.
The economist tempered concerns about potentially punitive initial tariff figures, suggesting that despite possible early posturing, the final rates imposed on Taiwanese exports would likely settle within the more moderate 15% to 20% band. During his presentation of CIER’s economic outlook for 2025, Lien stressed that any tariff rates publicly declared by former president Donald Trump (川普), who has championed the reciprocal tariff approach, should be viewed as preliminary. The economist repeatedly underscored the fluid nature of Trump’s trade strategies, characterizing them as deliberately unpredictable bargaining tactics designed to extract concessions.
Lien offered a candid assessment of the tariff announcement strategy, describing the published rates as strategic opening gambits rather than genuine policy positions. According to the economist, these figures serve primarily as leverage to compel ongoing negotiations. The CIER president detailed how final tariff determinations would likely emerge only after Trump personally judged the negotiation process complete. Drawing on historical precedent, Lien outlined the traditionally protracted nature of U.S. trade policy implementation, which typically involves multiple investigative phases, public hearings, and congressional consultations spanning years. He referenced the still-unfinished Taiwan-U.S. 21st Century Trade Initiative talks as evidence of how trade negotiations typically unfold over extended timeframes.
The economist maintained a cautiously optimistic outlook, suggesting that even after Taiwan’s specific tariff rate becomes public, it should be considered a provisional figure subject to further adjustment through diplomatic channels. Nations affected by the reciprocal tariff policy will likely engage in intensive negotiations through the August 1 implementation deadline, seeking to secure more favorable terms. Lien predicted that major U.S. trading partners like Canada and Mexico would ultimately receive reduced rates from their initial assessments. He identified the policy’s dual objectives as establishing a baseline tariff range of approximately 20% to 40% while simultaneously creating mechanisms to prevent the circumvention of duties through third-country transshipment, a practice known as origin laundering.