The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. The results will determine whether the Republican Party maintains its congressional advantage and will influence President Donald Trump’s domestic and foreign trade policies. Da-Nien Liu, Director of the Regional Development Study Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), notes that Democrats are currently more likely to regain control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate outcome remains uncertain. Key factors to monitor include improvements in household living costs, developments in international conflicts and oil prices, and the effectiveness of Republican campaign resource allocation in generating votes.
Cost of Living and Energy Prices Become Key Election Issues as Economic Data May Not Translate Into Votes
Liu stated that food, energy, and housing costs most directly affect U.S. voters’ daily lives. Tariffs have increased the cost of imported raw materials and fertilizers, and international conflicts have driven up oil prices. These factors have placed greater pressure on voters in certain agricultural states and may weaken the Republican Party’s traditional support base.
Even if overall U.S. economic data remain strong, increased household expenses may prevent these gains from translating into votes for the governing party. The Republicans’ ability to effectively address voters’ concerns about living costs before the election will be critical to securing support.
Liu indicated that international developments will also influence the election. Trump aims to achieve diplomatic successes before Election Day, but Iran and other countries have their own interests and may not align with the U.S. political schedule. Key issues to monitor include progress in relevant negotiations and actual declines in oil prices.
House Faces Greater Flip Risk as Key Senate Races Stay Fierce
Democrats have a higher likelihood of regaining control of the House of Representatives, but the Senate outcome will depend on competitive races in key states. Liu noted that Republicans currently hold a 53–47 advantage in the Senate. Democrats must achieve significant gains in contested races to take control of the chamber. If both parties have equal numbers of seats, the vice president’s tie-breaking vote will be decisive.
Senate election outcomes will depend not only on party support but also on individual candidate qualities and local political conditions. Therefore, some traditionally Republican-leaning constituencies may still experience intense competition.
Taiwan Faces Fresh Trade Pressure as Congressional Checks Reshape U.S. Policy
Liu stated that campaign funding and voter mobilization are also critical factors in determining the election outcome. Although Republicans have a financial advantage, it is uncertain whether advertising will change voters’ opinions. Campaign funds may also be used to support organizational efforts that increase turnout among existing supporters, potentially influencing closely contested races.
From Taiwan’s perspective, U.S. policy direction should not be judged solely by the outcome of party competition in the midterm elections. More attention should be given to how changes in congressional control affect the administration’s policy implementation capacity. If Republicans lose their congressional majority, Trump may face increased constraints in advancing domestic policies and may shift more political capital toward foreign affairs and trade, continuing to use bilateral negotiations to press trading partners for additional investment and procurement commitments.
Taiwan should therefore continue to monitor changes in U.S. domestic politics, energy prices, and international conflicts. It should carefully assess potential U.S. demands regarding investment, procurement, and trade terms, and prepare policy responses in advance. These measures would help reduce the uncertainty that U.S. political changes may create for Taiwan’s economic and trade environment.
Source: China Times (October 11, 2026). As U.S. Midterms Approach, Scholar Says Trump May Press Allies to Boost Investment and Procurement if Republicans Lose Their Congressional Majorityhttps://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20261021003096-260407