TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Taiwan should try to avoid drawing US President Donald Trump’s attention ahead of his summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a leading think tank president said Friday.
If Taiwan manages to project the image that it is cooperating with the US, Trump will not consider it as a topic of conversation during the May talks in China, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research President Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) wrote on his Facebook page. However, if the US president has the impression Taiwan is a problem, the outcome might be completely different, Lien said.
At present, the president is too busy with domestic opposition and the war in Iran to think much about Taiwan, according to Lien. As a result, Taipei’s best policy would be to remain quiet and refrain from doing anything that might attract his attention, he said.
Ahead of his meeting with Xi, Trump might look at several factors involving Taiwan, including the US trade deficit, the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, semiconductor supply chains, energy cooperation, and defense deals.
If he judges Taiwan is cooperating on those subjects, he will turn his attention to other issues, Lien said. However, if the US president feels that is not the case, his style will be to exert immense pressure, with no topic off the table, according to Lien.
Unlike other leaders, Trump does not distinguish between political, economic, and security interests, and between short-term and long-term goals, Lien said.
The academic said that during recent visits by US experts, he had heard them insist Taiwan should show it was a faithful ally. If Trump is dissatisfied, he might take punitive actions, including canceling arms deals, halting talks on a taxation agreement, or demanding more Taiwanese investment in the US.
Taiwan also needs to convince US think tanks that it is serious about defending itself, otherwise they will find it hard to persuade US public opinion that helping Taiwan is a worthy cause, Lien said. The problem needs to be resolved before Trump meets with Xi, or Taiwan could get into serious trouble, the senior academic concluded.
He was referring to the government’s NT$1.25 trillion (US$40 billion) special defense budget, which has been held up for months at the Legislative Yuan due to the opposition majority.
Matthew Strong
Taiwan News, Staff Writer
May. 1, 2026