The Vietnamese government announced that its 2025 economic growth rate reached 8.2%, marking the second-highest record in nearly 15 years. Vietnam’s total trade volume has exceeded US$920 billion, positioning the country as the 15th largest trading nation globally. This achievement is underscored by record high exports to the United States and a significant trade surplus. Vietnam has established an ambitious GDP growth target of 10% for 2026. Achieving this goal would elevate its nominal GDP above that of Thailand, positioning Vietnam as the second-largest economy in the ASEAN region.
Kristy Hsu, the Director of the Taiwan ASEAN Studies Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER), observed that Vietnam has emerged as a key destination for manufacturing relocation in recent years. This shift is largely attributed to the effects of the U.S.-China trade war and the ongoing reorganization of global supply chains. Despite the United States implementing reciprocal tariffs on several countries, Vietnam’s exports continued to thrive, experiencing a remarkable 17% year-over-year growth in 2025. Notably, exports to the U.S. skyrocketed by 28%, underscoring Vietnam’s increasingly vital role in global supply chains.
However, Director Kristy Hsu also points out that structural risks lurk beneath the impressive figures. Vietnam’s manufacturing sector heavily relies on intermediate goods imported from China, maintaining a trade deficit with China consistently around US$100 billion. The substantial surplus with the United States is actually supported by the deficit with China, creating dual trade risks. Additionally, foreign-invested enterprises account for approximately 75% of exports, meaning domestic industries benefit only marginally. Insufficient industrial upgrading and endogenous growth momentum remain challenges requiring breakthroughs.
In 2026, Vietnam will face significant challenges such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and rising labor costs. Addressing these issues and improving the structural imbalances within its industrial and trade sectors will be crucial for the country’s future development.
Author: CIER Editorial Team
Date: January 13, 2026