TAIPEI (TVBS News) — Uncertainty surrounding the duration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s recently imposed tariffs has created significant challenges for economic forecasting, according to the president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研院), Taiwan’s leading economic think tank. Speaking on Friday (April 18), the institution outlined three distinct growth scenarios for Taiwan’s economy: a pessimistic projection of just 0.16%, a general expectation of 1.66%, and an optimistic forecast of 2.85%.
The new projections represent a substantial downward revision from January, when CIER had forecast a 3.22% growth rate for 2025, a figure already tempered by high comparison baselines and mounting global economic uncertainties. CIER President Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) identified the Trump administration’s April 9 tariff implementation as the primary destabilizing factor, though he noted that a 90-day buffer period and exemptions for certain technology products could mitigate some impacts. These moderating elements form the foundation of the institution’s optimistic scenario, which projects 2.85% economic growth.
Under the institution’s general scenario, which assumes tariffs exceeding 10% but otherwise stable conditions, Taiwan’s economy would expand by a modest 1.66%. The most concerning projection — the pessimistic scenario—anticipates extended tariff implementation, eroding consumer confidence, and potential recessions in the United States and other key economies, resulting in Taiwan’s growth plummeting to just 0.16%. Lien placed the probability of this worst-case scenario at 10% to 20%, acknowledging the exceptional forecasting challenges during the current 90-day tariff buffer period.
The economist highlighted Taiwan’s particular vulnerability to the escalating trade tensions, with the U.S. imposing 245% tariffs on Chinese imports and China responding with 125% retaliatory measures. As a major trading partner to both economic powers, Taiwan faces significant exposure to these disruptions, though Lien expressed cautious optimism that the tensions would eventually subside.
Reporter TVBS News Staff
Release time：2025/04/18 16:00
Last update time：2025/04/18 17:46