The annual production volume of foodgrains in Mainland China is directly related to the stability of the ruling regime, social economic development, and changes in the standard of living of the general population. Thus an analysis of foodgrain production problems in Mainland China has wide ranging implications and is an important topic for research.
This study is divided into seven sections. Section one introduces the significance of foodgrain production in Mainland China. Section two explores the role of foodgrain production in the social economy. Section three looks at the natural environment of foodgrain production and also at its geographic distribution. Section four describes the actual performance of foodgrain production since 1952. Section five analyzes the production efficiency of foodgrain production during this same period. Section six discusses the future prospects for foodgrain production. Section seven presents a brief summary conclusion.
Over the last thirty years, the official definition of foodgrain used in Mainland China has been subject to much change and has become ambiguous. In this study, these alterations are discussed and a conclusive definition is arrived at.
Data on foodgrain production which has been released in Mainland China is problematic. Some data represent overestimations, and some relevant data are conspicuously absent. New calculations are made in this study for the overestimated and missing data through the use of correlation analysis between foodgrain production and adjusted real agricultural gross value, which was calculated by the author. By using the modified data, foodgrain production during 1981-1990 is forecasted through the application of an econometric model.
The major findings of the study are as follows:
(1) Although Mainland China’s ruling regime has devoted considerable attention to foodgrain production, it remains rather low because of misleading economic and agricultural policies. Mainland China’s government also proclaimed that total foodgrain production had reached pre-war levels by 1952, but measurements of unit production by sown area demonstrate that pre-war levels were not reached until the 1970’s.
(2) Foodgrain production grew at an annual rate of 2.4% between 1952 and 1980. The efficiency rate of foodgrain production, however, has remained low. This implies that emphasizing increased labor force inputs into the production process does not guarantee that the rate of foodgrain production will be increased.
(3) Increases in foodgrain production have proceeded at roughly the same rate as population growth. Hence, per capita foodgrain consumption has registered only a slight increase during the past thirty years. Imports of foodgrains are therefore still necessary and urgent.
(4) Our data forecasts that the highest possible level of foodgrain production in 1985 is 363.5 million tons. This is far short of the 400 million tons target figure laid out in the sixth Five Year Economic Plan. It is estimated that this target will not be fulfilled until 1990.
