The estimates of supply and demand capacity on visitors to Taiwan and tourist reception facilities 

Abstract:

The main purpose of this study is to analyze and evaluate the supply and demand of the capacity of domestic tourism-related facilities, based on the estimation of the visitor arrivals in the Republic of China. The methodology used in this research including forecast, target planning, and policy simulation. This research have used traditional statistic and regression model and employed GDP (or per capita GDP), exchange rate, lag dependent variable and time trend as the independent variables to forecast tourism visitors and the demand and supply of tourism-related facilities (for example hotels, vehicles, tourist guides, international transportation, and airport facilities) in different areas (for example northern, central, southern, eastern area and outlying islands) in seasonally peak period. The data used in this project included the number of visitor arrivals, the growth rate and weights by categories in 13 areas, 6 destinations, and 9 modes of transportation equipments. Therefore, up to 5 years or 5 scenarios could be simulated in the system. 

According to the analysis of this model in December 2014, detailed supply and demand of the capacity of domestic tourism-related facilities could be detected as follows: 

1. The airport terminal buildings of TPE (Taoyuan International Airport) has already reached capacity bottleneck. To meet the demand from fast growing visitor arrivals, it is suggested that terminal building should be speed up expanding and constructing, so as to significantly enhance TPE’s total capacity. 

2. The supply of airport capacity for various entry planes is enough, as well as the flexibility for further enhancement. 

3. The seats in passenger ships (regular schedule) for transportation directly from Mainland China to Taiwan Island as well as from Kinmen and Matzu to Mainland China are available. It is noteworthy that in the peak period in June 2014, about 27,000 visitors from Mainland through direct passenger ships, approaching to the capacity limit. To meet the demand of increasing visitor arrivals, regular flight voyage adjustment is necessary. 

4. At aggregate level, tour bus capacity is adequate. In terms of regions, tour bus capacity has been shortage in northern region occasionally, though in central, southern, eastern and outlying island regions is adequate. In order to help ease the supply shortage in the northern region, supported by different region tour buses has been suggested. 

5. The total supply of hotels is adequate. In terms of regions, there is capacity shortage in central and eastern regions. For the reason of the scenic attractions characteristics in these regions, upgrade private lodging not only attract more foreign visitors but also help increase the supply of hotel rooms. 

6. Currently, there are over 34,000 tourist guides, of whom, 77% can speak Chinese and 12% can speak English. It will be enough to meet the demand of increasing visitor come from Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, etc. The potential supply shortage could be the guides who can speak special foreign languages for Middle East and Southeast Asia visitors.